Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

This year's class of Oscar nominees includes more than a few talents who've been down the red carpet on Hollywood's biggest night before, whether as honored nominees or as ecstatic winners. Annette Bening, for one example, has earned her fourth nomination for "The Kids Are All Right." Geoffrey Rush, meanwhile, is seeing if he'll take home his second Oscar, with his work in "The King's Speech" as his fourth nomination. Of the first-time nominees this year, James Franco and Christian Bale are already established fixtures as both stars and actors: Franco's making a game out of his fame, while it's hard to see the man who redeemed Batman, to the ringing of record-breaking box-office, as a newcomer.
But many of this year's Oscar first-timers are lesser-known -- or new stars in incendiary debuts, or long-established talents from here or from abroad finally catching Hollywood's eye. With that in mind, here's a quick guide to the fresh-faced first-time nominees of the 2010 Oscars, telling you where you can find their earlier work and where you're going to see them next

Jesse Eisenberg

Jesse Eisenberg
Where you've seen him before: While Eisenberg's enjoying his first Oscar nomination, the young actor's been ceaselessly busy since his debut in 1999 as a bit player on the TV show "Get Real." Standout parts include his work opposite Campbell Scott in "Roger Dodger," a part in Noah Baumbach's '70s New York saga "The Squid and the Whale" and as a neurotic survivor of the apocalypse in "Zombieland." Eisenberg's nerdy, nervy persona has always been part of his appeal, but in "The Social Network" it reached its highest, best point.

What's next: The next time Eisenberg's on the big screen, we won't be seeing him: He's voicing the domesticated tropical bird who lights out for South America from the heartland in the animated film "Rio." After that, Eisenberg's reuniting with "Zombieland" director Ruben Fleischer for "30 Minutes or Less," a comedic take on the less-than-hilarious true story of a man fitted with an explosive collar by criminals who instructed him to rob a bank -- or else. And, of course, the box-office success of the low-budget, high-concept "Zombieland" makes a sequel inevitable ... if, of course, Eisenberg's post-Oscar-nomination prestige, and prestige paycheck, don't kill that project before it even comes, ahem, alive.

John Hawkes

John Hawkes
Where you've seen him before: Considering that Hawkes' work as an actor began in 1985 -- in the awesomely named, horrible-sounding "Future Kill" -- the better question might be where you haven't. Hawkes logged time as a supporting character on two acclaimed HBO shows -- "Deadwood" and "Eastbound and Down" -- in the past decade, as well as a memorable, if short, stint as the peaceful-but-scary "Lennon" in fifth and final season of "Lost." Hawkes also has a list of blink-and-you'll-miss-them credits in larger films: "Identity," "Miracle at Saint Anna," "Miami Vice" and "The Perfect Storm" among them. Ironically, "Winter's Bone" wasn't Hawkes' first Sundance standout: The actor also played a nice-guy-nebbish romantic lead in Miranda July's "Me and You and Everyone We Know."
What's next: Hawkes' upcoming films have the same mix of indie cred and big-budget sprawl as the rest of his résumé. He's one of the many actors in Steven Soderbergh's disease thriller "Contagion," alongside Matt Damon, Jude Law and Gwyneth Paltrow, but he's also earning praise for his hypnotic work as a cult leader in the breakout Sundance thriller "Martha Marcy May Marlene," which was picked up for distribution just two weeks ago by Fox Searchlight. 

Mark Ruffalo

Mark Ruffalo
Where you've seen him before: Of all this year's first-time nominees, Ruffalo may be tied with Bale for the dubious honor of having deserved an Oscar nomination the longest before finally getting one this year. Ruffalo's done award-worthy work in a number of indie dramas -- "You Can Count on Me," "We Don't Live Here Anymore," "Reservation Road" -- plus critically acclaimed studio pictures like "Zodiac" and last year's "Shutter Island."
What's next: In one of Oscar's most time-honored traditions -- insiders call it "The Halle Berry Effect" -- Ruffalo's turned an Oscar-buzz role into a part in a big, brassy superhero film. Ruffalo's signed on to the upcoming Marvel crossover "The Avengers," and he'll be the third actor in nine years to play Bruce Banner (and, via the "miracle" of motion-capture, the first actor to also play Banner's green alter-ego, The Hulk) in a Marvel Comics adaptation. Here's hoping the paycheck is worth the risk. On a slightly more prestigious level, Ruffalo's also one of the names rumored to be circling "Cogan's Trade," a crime saga from Andrew Dominik ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") with Brad Pitt in the lead.

Jennifer Lawrence

Jennifer Lawrence
Where you've seen her before: Before "Winter's Bone" became the toast of Sundance back in 2010, Lawrence's biggest credit was as a regular player on stand-up comedian Bill Engvall's self-titled "The Bill Engvall Show." Along with Hailee Steinfeld, Lawrence is this year's example of how a young actress can parlay one electric role into possible Oscar glory.
What's next: Between the January 2010 unveiling of "Winter's Bone" and now, Lawrence may be the nominee most likely to have struck while the iron is hot. She'll be seen in Jodie Foster's controversial Mel Gibson comedy-drama "The Beaver," as well as in a supporting part in the Sundance 2011 Grand Jury Dramatic prize winner "Like Crazy," which Paramount picked up for distribution. Much like Ruffalo, Lawrence is also turning indie cred into studio cash in the name of comic-book action: She's stepping into Rebecca Romijn's shoes -- or, rather, makeup -- as the blue-hued shape-shifter Mystique in Matthew Vaughn's "X-Men: First Class" alongside James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender.

Hailee Steinfeld

Hailee Steinfeld
Where you've seen her before: Of all this year's nominees, Steinfeld's story is the one that most follows the classic Hollywood "out of nowhere" arc. Steinfeld, 13 at the time of the movie's filming, had a handful of shorts and bit parts to her name before she was plucked from thousands of possible candidates by directors Joel and Ethan Coen to play Mattie Ross. Steinfeld found herself in the role of a lifetime at a precociously early age -- and, yes, that Kmart "Blingitude" commercial she did as part of her earliest acting jobs is incongruously funny yet oddly endearing.
What's next: Steinfeld doesn't have any firm roles booked -- and yet, in our age of showbiz news fueled by rumor and supposition, there's plenty of hypothesizing going around that Steinfeld's one of the leading choices to take the lead role of Katniss Everdeen in Gary Ross' adaptation of dystopian kid-lit adventure saga "The Hunger Games." If Steinfeld does land the role, it'll mean a three-film deal ... and a franchise with a fan base waiting to see her thrill and kill in the saga's grisly gladiatorial action. Only time will tell if Steinfeld's career path is going to be like that of Anna Paquin or Jodie Foster (a winner at age 11 and a nominee at 14, respectively) or more of a flash-and-fade like Keisha Castle-Hughes (nominated at 13 for "Whale Rider").

Jacki Weaver

Jacki Weaver
Where you've seen her before: The cruel fact is that unless you live in Australia -- where Weaver's been working since the mid-'60s in theater, TV and film -- you probably haven't. Weaver's best-known film prior to "Animal Kingdom" was a small part in the haunting, mysterious "Picnic at Hanging Rock" from 1975. It may not have been a high-profile road to the Oscars, but Weaver's career has real longevity: She made her debut in 1966 in an Australian children's TV show, 18 years before her fellow nominee Melissa Leo made her acting debut on TV's "All My Children" -- and before nominees Helena Bonham Carter, Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams were even born.
What's next: Weaver's next film will be the romantic drama "Summer Coda." It was a 2010 release in Australia, playing at the 2011 Palm Springs International Film Festival, with no word on a possible wider U.S. release. It'a cliché, but considering that Weaver beat out such supposed locks for the nomination as Mila Kunis, Dianne Wiest and Julianne Moore, this may be the case where it actually is an honor just to be nominated.
Read More: MSN

More about → Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

This year's class of Oscar nominees includes more than a few talents who've been down the red carpet on Hollywood's biggest night before, whether as honored nominees or as ecstatic winners. Annette Bening, for one example, has earned her fourth nomination for "The Kids Are All Right." Geoffrey Rush, meanwhile, is seeing if he'll take home his second Oscar, with his work in "The King's Speech" as his fourth nomination. Of the first-time nominees this year, James Franco and Christian Bale are already established fixtures as both stars and actors: Franco's making a game out of his fame, while it's hard to see the man who redeemed Batman, to the ringing of record-breaking box-office, as a newcomer.
But many of this year's Oscar first-timers are lesser-known -- or new stars in incendiary debuts, or long-established talents from here or from abroad finally catching Hollywood's eye. With that in mind, here's a quick guide to the fresh-faced first-time nominees of the 2010 Oscars, telling you where you can find their earlier work and where you're going to see them next

Jesse Eisenberg

Jesse Eisenberg
Where you've seen him before: While Eisenberg's enjoying his first Oscar nomination, the young actor's been ceaselessly busy since his debut in 1999 as a bit player on the TV show "Get Real." Standout parts include his work opposite Campbell Scott in "Roger Dodger," a part in Noah Baumbach's '70s New York saga "The Squid and the Whale" and as a neurotic survivor of the apocalypse in "Zombieland." Eisenberg's nerdy, nervy persona has always been part of his appeal, but in "The Social Network" it reached its highest, best point.

What's next: The next time Eisenberg's on the big screen, we won't be seeing him: He's voicing the domesticated tropical bird who lights out for South America from the heartland in the animated film "Rio." After that, Eisenberg's reuniting with "Zombieland" director Ruben Fleischer for "30 Minutes or Less," a comedic take on the less-than-hilarious true story of a man fitted with an explosive collar by criminals who instructed him to rob a bank -- or else. And, of course, the box-office success of the low-budget, high-concept "Zombieland" makes a sequel inevitable ... if, of course, Eisenberg's post-Oscar-nomination prestige, and prestige paycheck, don't kill that project before it even comes, ahem, alive.

John Hawkes

John Hawkes
Where you've seen him before: Considering that Hawkes' work as an actor began in 1985 -- in the awesomely named, horrible-sounding "Future Kill" -- the better question might be where you haven't. Hawkes logged time as a supporting character on two acclaimed HBO shows -- "Deadwood" and "Eastbound and Down" -- in the past decade, as well as a memorable, if short, stint as the peaceful-but-scary "Lennon" in fifth and final season of "Lost." Hawkes also has a list of blink-and-you'll-miss-them credits in larger films: "Identity," "Miracle at Saint Anna," "Miami Vice" and "The Perfect Storm" among them. Ironically, "Winter's Bone" wasn't Hawkes' first Sundance standout: The actor also played a nice-guy-nebbish romantic lead in Miranda July's "Me and You and Everyone We Know."
What's next: Hawkes' upcoming films have the same mix of indie cred and big-budget sprawl as the rest of his résumé. He's one of the many actors in Steven Soderbergh's disease thriller "Contagion," alongside Matt Damon, Jude Law and Gwyneth Paltrow, but he's also earning praise for his hypnotic work as a cult leader in the breakout Sundance thriller "Martha Marcy May Marlene," which was picked up for distribution just two weeks ago by Fox Searchlight. 

Mark Ruffalo

Mark Ruffalo
Where you've seen him before: Of all this year's first-time nominees, Ruffalo may be tied with Bale for the dubious honor of having deserved an Oscar nomination the longest before finally getting one this year. Ruffalo's done award-worthy work in a number of indie dramas -- "You Can Count on Me," "We Don't Live Here Anymore," "Reservation Road" -- plus critically acclaimed studio pictures like "Zodiac" and last year's "Shutter Island."
What's next: In one of Oscar's most time-honored traditions -- insiders call it "The Halle Berry Effect" -- Ruffalo's turned an Oscar-buzz role into a part in a big, brassy superhero film. Ruffalo's signed on to the upcoming Marvel crossover "The Avengers," and he'll be the third actor in nine years to play Bruce Banner (and, via the "miracle" of motion-capture, the first actor to also play Banner's green alter-ego, The Hulk) in a Marvel Comics adaptation. Here's hoping the paycheck is worth the risk. On a slightly more prestigious level, Ruffalo's also one of the names rumored to be circling "Cogan's Trade," a crime saga from Andrew Dominik ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") with Brad Pitt in the lead.

Jennifer Lawrence

Jennifer Lawrence
Where you've seen her before: Before "Winter's Bone" became the toast of Sundance back in 2010, Lawrence's biggest credit was as a regular player on stand-up comedian Bill Engvall's self-titled "The Bill Engvall Show." Along with Hailee Steinfeld, Lawrence is this year's example of how a young actress can parlay one electric role into possible Oscar glory.
What's next: Between the January 2010 unveiling of "Winter's Bone" and now, Lawrence may be the nominee most likely to have struck while the iron is hot. She'll be seen in Jodie Foster's controversial Mel Gibson comedy-drama "The Beaver," as well as in a supporting part in the Sundance 2011 Grand Jury Dramatic prize winner "Like Crazy," which Paramount picked up for distribution. Much like Ruffalo, Lawrence is also turning indie cred into studio cash in the name of comic-book action: She's stepping into Rebecca Romijn's shoes -- or, rather, makeup -- as the blue-hued shape-shifter Mystique in Matthew Vaughn's "X-Men: First Class" alongside James McAvoy and Michael Fassbender.

Hailee Steinfeld

Hailee Steinfeld
Where you've seen her before: Of all this year's nominees, Steinfeld's story is the one that most follows the classic Hollywood "out of nowhere" arc. Steinfeld, 13 at the time of the movie's filming, had a handful of shorts and bit parts to her name before she was plucked from thousands of possible candidates by directors Joel and Ethan Coen to play Mattie Ross. Steinfeld found herself in the role of a lifetime at a precociously early age -- and, yes, that Kmart "Blingitude" commercial she did as part of her earliest acting jobs is incongruously funny yet oddly endearing.
What's next: Steinfeld doesn't have any firm roles booked -- and yet, in our age of showbiz news fueled by rumor and supposition, there's plenty of hypothesizing going around that Steinfeld's one of the leading choices to take the lead role of Katniss Everdeen in Gary Ross' adaptation of dystopian kid-lit adventure saga "The Hunger Games." If Steinfeld does land the role, it'll mean a three-film deal ... and a franchise with a fan base waiting to see her thrill and kill in the saga's grisly gladiatorial action. Only time will tell if Steinfeld's career path is going to be like that of Anna Paquin or Jodie Foster (a winner at age 11 and a nominee at 14, respectively) or more of a flash-and-fade like Keisha Castle-Hughes (nominated at 13 for "Whale Rider").

Jacki Weaver

Jacki Weaver
Where you've seen her before: The cruel fact is that unless you live in Australia -- where Weaver's been working since the mid-'60s in theater, TV and film -- you probably haven't. Weaver's best-known film prior to "Animal Kingdom" was a small part in the haunting, mysterious "Picnic at Hanging Rock" from 1975. It may not have been a high-profile road to the Oscars, but Weaver's career has real longevity: She made her debut in 1966 in an Australian children's TV show, 18 years before her fellow nominee Melissa Leo made her acting debut on TV's "All My Children" -- and before nominees Helena Bonham Carter, Hailee Steinfeld and Amy Adams were even born.
What's next: Weaver's next film will be the romantic drama "Summer Coda." It was a 2010 release in Australia, playing at the 2011 Palm Springs International Film Festival, with no word on a possible wider U.S. release. It'a cliché, but considering that Weaver beat out such supposed locks for the nomination as Mila Kunis, Dianne Wiest and Julianne Moore, this may be the case where it actually is an honor just to be nominated.
Read More: MSN

More about → Fresh Faces at the Academy Awards

Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?

Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?

The template for this year's Oscar race was carved in stone in September when "The King's Speech" premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and "The Social Network" opened the New York Film Festival. In one corner, you had a film that had seemingly checked off every box in its appeal to Academy voters -- Royals! Period piece! Lofty British drama! Triumph over disability! Triumph over Nazis! -- and, in the other, you had a movie with an unlikable, socially awkward genius protagonist directed by David Fincher, an unlikable, socially awkward genius director.
That dynamic -- young vs. old, Facebook vs. Mr. Darcy -- hasn't changed in the ensuing four months. And even with the late entry of three critically acclaimed box-office successes -- "True Grit," "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" -- this year's best picture trophy will recognize either the emotional uplift of "The King's Speech" or the exhilarating immediacy of "The Social Network."
And, from all appearances, it looks like voters are going with their hearts and not their heads.

Here's how the top races will go:

BEST PICTURE

The nominees: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone"

The winner: "The King's Speech"

Possible upset: "The Social Network"

Why limit the 10 picture race to just these two films? For starters, no movie wins Best Picture without a nomination for its director, which eliminates half the field. And you're out, too, if you don't have a screenplay nomination. That leaves four films, with "The Fighter" and "True Grit" joining the two favorites.

One month ago, everything pointed to "The Social Network" winning. The film had taken every critics prize and the Golden Globe for drama. It's only the third movie since 1975 to win the top awards from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups, the National Board of Review and the Globe. The other two, "Schindler's List" and "Terms of Endearment," went on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

All that history was wiped out when "The King's Speech" swept the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. These people vote for the Oscars. Critics do not.

So what happened? It'd be easy to chalk it up to another one of Harvey Weinstein's scorched-earth Oscar campaigns, where his minions wheedle Academy voters and Harvey himself calls in the heavy ammunition. (If Queen Elizabeth loved "The King's Speech," it must be terrific!) But, simply put: Academy members like Harvey's movie best. They feel an emotional connection to "The King's Speech." As for "The Social Network" ... well, it's just not that kind of movie.

Time will tell whether a win for "King's Speech" will be a source of embarrassment to the Academy akin to, say, "Ordinary People" beating "Raging Bull" or "Dances With Wolves" prevailing over "Goodfellas." I'd argue that Fincher's movie is nowhere near as accomplished as the two Scorsese films and that naysayers undervalue all the ways "Speech" goes against conventionality. But "Social Network" supporters tend to stamp their feet when differing viewpoints are offered, so my reasoning would probably fall on deaf ears anyway.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

The winner: Natalie Portman

Possible upset: Annette Bening

Not much of a contest here. Yes, Bening delivered a fine performance (though "Kids" co-star Julianne Moore one-upped her in terms of range), but Portman goes to another stratosphere in "Black Swan." Plus, it's a movie that speaks to the sacrifices performers make for the sake of their art.
You don't think that's going to resonate with this crowd?

BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours"

The winner: Colin Firth

Possible upset: Firth doesn't deliver a witty and gracious acceptance speech.

Firth could well have won last year for "A Single Man." In fact, if he had bested Bridges, who prevailed for playing the boozy country singer in "Crazy Heart," it would be Bridges' turn to win the Oscar this year. And, one could easily make the case that Firth delivered a more nuanced, affecting performance for "A Single Man," and that Bridges' Rooster Cogburn was a superior example of a redeemed drunkard.

But that's just rummaging through apples and oranges in a race that, because of the way the Academy votes, belongs to Firth and Firth alone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

The winner: Melissa Leo

Possible upset: Hailee Steinfeld

Leo ruffled a few feathers recently when she had the gall to buy her own glossy (i.e. tacky) trade ads featuring a glamorous shot of the 50-year-old actress along with the word "Consider." And, with the Academy Awards, you just don't do that kind of self-promotion because, as we all know, nominees don't actually campaign for the prize. No, they just hit the talk-show circuit and attend awards shows and press receptions and Academy screenings to promote the movie, not themselves.

"She just lost my vote," one Academy member reportedly told The Hollywood Reporter, a comment that concisely sums up the inane logic some Academy members use in marking their ballots. God forbid they actually vote on the work and not the sideshow.

That said, there's always a backlash to the backlash. The sniping might actually cement the win for Leo, who has long been the frontrunner in the category (a status that makes her ad purchase a doubly curious choice.) But if she loses, don't blame the misguided self-promotion. Having fellow "Fighter" cast member Adams in the category could split the vote, giving newcomer Steinfeld the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

The winner: Christian Bale

Possible upset: Geoffrey Rush

The one nominee who didn't glad-hand this year was Bale, proving again that you don't have to make the rounds on the rubber chicken circuit to win an Oscar (Mo'Nique sure as hell didn't last year). Of course, you can afford that luxury only if the work makes voters' teeth drop from the get-go, and Bale's did. From the moment you glimpse his hollow cheeks and wiry frame, you know Bale has done another full-bore freefall in the name of art or insanity or some irresistible combination of both.

At any rate, there's no way he loses. Unless the Academy, really loves "The King's Speech" in a way that transcends categories and common sense.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

The winner: Tom Hooper

Possible upset: David Fincher

And, circling back to transcending categories and common sense, look at the nominees in this category. The Coens. David O. Russell. Aronofsky. Fincher. Four (counting the brothers as a two-headed single entity) of the greatest filmmakers working today. You could program a wonderful week-long film festival with their work and still have movies left over for, as they say, further viewing.

And then you have this year's likely winner, Tom Hooper, a Brit who spent most of his career working in television before making "The King's Speech."

You could argue that each of the indisputably great directors has made better films. And you could also note that Hooper invested his movie with plenty of interesting, intelligent visual touches. He moves the camera elegantly and his sense of composition is flawless. He also seems to have a way with actors. But that doesn't make it feel any less ... wrong (there, I said it) to be giving Hooper the Oscar over four equally deserving candidates, directors who have contributed so much to the past quarter century of cinema.

Fincher could still sneak in and win this. But chances are he'll get his Oscar 20 years from now for some halfway decent movie starring Brad Pitt, who will, by that point, have assumed the elder-statesman mantle from Jack Nicholson and be sitting in the Kodak Theatre's front row, applauding with gusto.
Read More: MSN 

More about → Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?

Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?

Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?

The template for this year's Oscar race was carved in stone in September when "The King's Speech" premiered at the Telluride Film Festival and "The Social Network" opened the New York Film Festival. In one corner, you had a film that had seemingly checked off every box in its appeal to Academy voters -- Royals! Period piece! Lofty British drama! Triumph over disability! Triumph over Nazis! -- and, in the other, you had a movie with an unlikable, socially awkward genius protagonist directed by David Fincher, an unlikable, socially awkward genius director.

That dynamic -- young vs. old, Facebook vs. Mr. Darcy -- hasn't changed in the ensuing four months. And even with the late entry of three critically acclaimed box-office successes -- "True Grit," "Black Swan" and "The Fighter" -- this year's best picture trophy will recognize either the emotional uplift of "The King's Speech" or the exhilarating immediacy of "The Social Network."
And, from all appearances, it looks like voters are going with their hearts and not their heads.

Here's how the top races will go:

BEST PICTURE

The nominees: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network," "Toy Story 3," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone"

The winner: "The King's Speech"

Possible upset: "The Social Network"

Why limit the 10 picture race to just these two films? For starters, no movie wins Best Picture without a nomination for its director, which eliminates half the field. And you're out, too, if you don't have a screenplay nomination. That leaves four films, with "The Fighter" and "True Grit" joining the two favorites.

One month ago, everything pointed to "The Social Network" winning. The film had taken every critics prize and the Golden Globe for drama. It's only the third movie since 1975 to win the top awards from the Los Angeles and New York film critics groups, the National Board of Review and the Globe. The other two, "Schindler's List" and "Terms of Endearment," went on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

All that history was wiped out when "The King's Speech" swept the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. These people vote for the Oscars. Critics do not.

So what happened? It'd be easy to chalk it up to another one of Harvey Weinstein's scorched-earth Oscar campaigns, where his minions wheedle Academy voters and Harvey himself calls in the heavy ammunition. (If Queen Elizabeth loved "The King's Speech," it must be terrific!) But, simply put: Academy members like Harvey's movie best. They feel an emotional connection to "The King's Speech." As for "The Social Network" ... well, it's just not that kind of movie.

Time will tell whether a win for "King's Speech" will be a source of embarrassment to the Academy akin to, say, "Ordinary People" beating "Raging Bull" or "Dances With Wolves" prevailing over "Goodfellas." I'd argue that Fincher's movie is nowhere near as accomplished as the two Scorsese films and that naysayers undervalue all the ways "Speech" goes against conventionality. But "Social Network" supporters tend to stamp their feet when differing viewpoints are offered, so my reasoning would probably fall on deaf ears anyway.

BEST ACTRESS

The nominees: Annette Bening, "The Kids Are All Right"; Nicole Kidman, "Rabbit Hole"; Jennifer Lawrence, "Winter's Bone"; Natalie Portman, "Black Swan"; Michelle Williams, "Blue Valentine"

The winner: Natalie Portman

Possible upset: Annette Bening

Not much of a contest here. Yes, Bening delivered a fine performance (though "Kids" co-star Julianne Moore one-upped her in terms of range), but Portman goes to another stratosphere in "Black Swan." Plus, it's a movie that speaks to the sacrifices performers make for the sake of their art.
You don't think that's going to resonate with this crowd?

BEST ACTOR

The nominees: Javier Bardem, "Biutiful"; Jeff Bridges, "True Grit"; Jesse Eisenberg, "The Social Network"; Colin Firth, "The King's Speech"; James Franco, "127 Hours"

The winner: Colin Firth

Possible upset: Firth doesn't deliver a witty and gracious acceptance speech.

Firth could well have won last year for "A Single Man." In fact, if he had bested Bridges, who prevailed for playing the boozy country singer in "Crazy Heart," it would be Bridges' turn to win the Oscar this year. And, one could easily make the case that Firth delivered a more nuanced, affecting performance for "A Single Man," and that Bridges' Rooster Cogburn was a superior example of a redeemed drunkard.

But that's just rummaging through apples and oranges in a race that, because of the way the Academy votes, belongs to Firth and Firth alone.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The nominees: Amy Adams, "The Fighter"; Helena Bonham Carter, "The King's Speech"; Melissa Leo, "The Fighter"; Hailee Steinfeld, "True Grit"; Jackie Weaver, "Animal Kingdom"

The winner: Melissa Leo

Possible upset: Hailee Steinfeld

Leo ruffled a few feathers recently when she had the gall to buy her own glossy (i.e. tacky) trade ads featuring a glamorous shot of the 50-year-old actress along with the word "Consider." And, with the Academy Awards, you just don't do that kind of self-promotion because, as we all know, nominees don't actually campaign for the prize. No, they just hit the talk-show circuit and attend awards shows and press receptions and Academy screenings to promote the movie, not themselves.

"She just lost my vote," one Academy member reportedly told The Hollywood Reporter, a comment that concisely sums up the inane logic some Academy members use in marking their ballots. God forbid they actually vote on the work and not the sideshow.

That said, there's always a backlash to the backlash. The sniping might actually cement the win for Leo, who has long been the frontrunner in the category (a status that makes her ad purchase a doubly curious choice.) But if she loses, don't blame the misguided self-promotion. Having fellow "Fighter" cast member Adams in the category could split the vote, giving newcomer Steinfeld the win.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

The nominees: Christian Bale, "The Fighter"; John Hawkes, "Winter's Bone"; Jeremy Renner, "The Town"; Mark Ruffalo, "The Kids Are All Right"; Geoffrey Rush, "The King's Speech"

The winner: Christian Bale

Possible upset: Geoffrey Rush

The one nominee who didn't glad-hand this year was Bale, proving again that you don't have to make the rounds on the rubber chicken circuit to win an Oscar (Mo'Nique sure as hell didn't last year). Of course, you can afford that luxury only if the work makes voters' teeth drop from the get-go, and Bale's did. From the moment you glimpse his hollow cheeks and wiry frame, you know Bale has done another full-bore freefall in the name of art or insanity or some irresistible combination of both.

At any rate, there's no way he loses. Unless the Academy, really loves "The King's Speech" in a way that transcends categories and common sense.

BEST DIRECTOR

The nominees: Darren Aronofsky, "Black Swan"; Joel and Ethan Coen, "True Grit"; David Fincher, "The Social Network"; Tom Hooper, "The King's Speech"; David O. Russell, "The Fighter"

The winner: Tom Hooper

Possible upset: David Fincher

And, circling back to transcending categories and common sense, look at the nominees in this category. The Coens. David O. Russell. Aronofsky. Fincher. Four (counting the brothers as a two-headed single entity) of the greatest filmmakers working today. You could program a wonderful week-long film festival with their work and still have movies left over for, as they say, further viewing.

And then you have this year's likely winner, Tom Hooper, a Brit who spent most of his career working in television before making "The King's Speech."

You could argue that each of the indisputably great directors has made better films. And you could also note that Hooper invested his movie with plenty of interesting, intelligent visual touches. He moves the camera elegantly and his sense of composition is flawless. He also seems to have a way with actors. But that doesn't make it feel any less ... wrong (there, I said it) to be giving Hooper the Oscar over four equally deserving candidates, directors who have contributed so much to the past quarter century of cinema.

Fincher could still sneak in and win this. But chances are he'll get his Oscar 20 years from now for some halfway decent movie starring Brad Pitt, who will, by that point, have assumed the elder-statesman mantle from Jack Nicholson and be sitting in the Kodak Theatre's front row, applauding with gusto.
Read More: MSN 

More about → Predictions: Who Will Take Home an Oscar?